Forecast discussion: A weak cold front will be passing through Providence in the next several hours. The front will not have moisture, and will actually take some of the humidity out of the air. So, we will feel the heat, but not the humidity, on Saturday. Temperatures will reach the middle 90’s away from the coast and beaches. No records will be broken, as the record high for Saturday was 98, set back in 1945. On Sunday, a weak disturbance will pass through New England on Sunday. It may help spark some afternoon or evening showers and thunderstorms. The chance for rainfall will continue into Monday evening, but we will see more clouds than sun for Tuesday. Looking at the Fourth of July, many computer models suggest there is the chance for some isolated showers in the afternoon. However, the American model is forecasting heavier rainfall to continue into Thursday night. For now, I will leave isolated showers in the afternoon, with partly cloudy skies for the evening. The weather will not interfere with any firework shows scheduled. But, I will be keeping an eye on the models for the next few days. We will return to mostly sunny weather by next Friday.
In the tropics, areas of clouds and thunderstorms have organized in the Gulf of Mexico. At this time, the surface air pressure is too high for any kind of development. There is only a 10 percent chance this area will become a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, a tropical wave is located at about 800 miles east of the Windward Islands. Despite a better concentration of thunderstorms, there is only a 20 percent chance this area will become a tropical cyclone in 48 hours.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Clear skies with a low of 68.
Saturday: Sunny with a high of 94. Winds will come from the southwest at 11-14 mph.
Saturday night: Mostly cloudy with a possible shower and a low of 69. Winds will come from the west-southwest at 4-7 mph.
Sunday: Mostly sunny through the day, with cloudy skies and possible showers/thunderstorms in the late afternoon or early evening. I’m expecting a high of 91.
Sunday night: Mostly cloudy with showers and isolated thunderstorms with a low of 68.
Monday: Partly sunny with isolated late morning showers/thunderstorms and a high of 86.
Monday night: Showers/thunderstorms ending before midnight, but remaining mostly cloudy with a low of 65.
Tuesday: Partly sunny. Highs 84-87, lows 64-67.
Fourth of July: Mostly cloudy with afternoon showers. Highs 83-86, lows 63-66.
Thursday: Showers and isolated thunderstorms in the early morning ending, becoming partly sunny by the afternoon. Highs 82-85, lows 63-66.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs 84-87, lows 62-65.